Excuse the abominably ugly picture, it's the product of a Google image search and mucking about with Paint. Yes, it may make your eyes bleed, but I thought a visual aid might help. Provided you clear away the blood, naturally.

Iowa, NH, Nevada, SC and Florida all have their own colours. We don't know exactly when they'll be, but Chris' most recent guess seems to make sense.

The states in red are those holding their primaries on February 5th. This is also based off Chris' post. A commenter mentioned RI was moving forward, but for now I'm assuming it's going to be held on March 4th. I have my doubts about the likelihood of its 21 unpledged delegates deciding the winner anyway. From February 5th-12th there are local caucuses for Democrats abroad, but I can't mark that on the map and there are only seven unpledged delegates available from these events anyway.

Those in purple are holding their primaries or caucuses on February 9th. Not shown in DC, because it's too small.

That shade of puce green, like dog vomit on a carpet, is used for those states selecting candidates after the 9th but before 20th February.

Orange represents those states currently intending to select delegates on March 4th (except Georgia and Conneticut, since it looks like they'll move to February 5th). Finally, the rest have a white background and seemingly don't harbour any ambition to influence who the Democrats pick as their candidate in 2008.

If you look at the map a few patterns start to emerge. In addition to this, however, you need to consider how many delegates they provide. There's a cumulative total of delegates available here, but it doesn't distinguish between pledged and unpledged delegates. Unpledged delegate totals are roughly proportional to state size, but remembering the relative populations of all fifty states is somewhat difficult, so here's a quick list of delegate counts and a running total by date:

Pre-February 5th
Iowa: 45
New Hampshire: 22
Nevada: 25
South Carolina: 45
Florida: 185
Running total: 322
February 5th
Alabama: 52
Alaska: 13
Arizona: 56
Arkansas: 35
California: 370
Colorado: 55
Connecticut: 48
Delaware: 15
Democrats Abroad: 7
Georgia: 87
Idaho: 18
Illinois: 153
Missouri: 72
New Jersey: 107
New Mexico: 26
New York: 232
North Carolina: 91
North Dakota: 13
Oklahoma: 38
Tennessee: 68
Utah: 23
Running total: 1901
February 9th
D.C.: 15
Louisiana: 56
Michigan: 128
Nebraska: 24
Washington: 78
Running total: 2202
February 10th-19th
Maine (10th): 24
Maryland (12th): 70
Virginia (12th): 83
Hawaii (19th): 20
Wisconsin (19th): 74
Running total: 2473
March 4th
Massachusetts: 93
Minnesota: 72
Ohio: 141
Rhode Island: 21
Texas: 193
Vermont: 15
Running total: 3008
Late
Wyoming (8th March): 12
Mississippi (11th March): 33
Kansas (1st April): 32
Pennsylvania (22nd April): 151
Indiana (6th May): 66
West Virginia (6th May): 26
Kentucky (20th May): 47
Oregon (20th May): 48
Montana (3rd June): 15
South Dakota (3rd June): 14
Final total: 3452

Looking at these figures, one can see that the effect of the early primaries is all in the media. Even with Florida in the mix, only 9.3% of unpledged delegates will be assigned befor Super-Tuesday. By February 6th, 55.1% will be assigned.

A campaign which is behind on Super-Tuesday but gets good press or the support of a withdrawing candidate might be able to keep above water and hold out for March 4th, when 15.5% of delegates will be assigned, but after that more than 87% of delegates will already be pledged to one candidate or another and there will either be a winner already or its the unpledged delegates who will hold the key.

So, what potential collections of states are there that a candidate might pursue?

Well, on Super-Tuesday, there appear to me to be three different geographical areas in which candidates can focus their efforts.

Firstly, one could try a western strategy. Even with California, states west of the farm belt provide little more than a third of the delegates on offer, but there are six states there (plus Alaska, but they really should not have scheduled a primary then if they wanted any attention), so if one could take most of those, that should grant some momentum. Of course, whether you could appeal both to California Democrats and Democrats in Utah and Idaho is another matter.

Secondly, a southern strategy is just about possible. If Georgia or North Carolina were to pull out of Super-Tuesday, it'd be less viable and Arkansas might be a tough nut to crack because of its Clinton links, but there are six southern states plus Missouri up for grabs. That's a total of 443 delegates. I'm not sure what the primary electorates are like in those states, but control of the black vote could prove crucial here. If Obama or Clinton secures it many of these states would probably be theirs for the taking. If it's evenly split, it's all up in the air, particularly if any candidate can get a near monopoly on southern white Democrats (Edwards seems the most likely candidate there).

Finally, dominance in the NYC area could probably bring Connecticut, New Jersey and New York into a candidate's camp. I'd guess local links make Clinton strongest here. It provides neither huge amounts of delegates nor many states but if combined with, say, California it'd give a candidate a crushing victory and just those three states on their own would allow a candidate to stay in the game.

The February 9th elections will likely be heavily influenced by media reaction to Super-Tuesday. They're geographically and politically separated from one another and only Michigan provides much in the way of delegates. That would provide the best hope of a way back for Edwards if he's lagging, but it wouldn't surprise me if the other candidates hang around the D.C. area both for media purposes and because the Maryland and Virginia primaries take place on the 12th.

After this, there's a bit of peace. On the 19th it seems likely Wisconsin will be targeted more than Hawaii, because it's a swing state, more accessible and offers more delegates. Then we enter, if the candidates haven't begun so before that, the run-up to the March 4th contests, when any race that's still going on is likely to be settled.

March 4th has the delegate-rich and safe Republican state of Texas, the reasonably populous mid-west swing states of Ohio and Minnesota and a trio of New England states (assuming Rhode Island hasn't already gone). Massachusetts is the only one of the three to provide many delegates, however, and it's doubtful how much of an advantage can be gained by winning two small and heavily-Democratic states.

There are still 10 primaries/caucuses after this, but the only one to provide more than 70 delegates is Pennsylvania. I really can't see there still being a competitive race going on by this time, and if there is then the comparatively small amount of delegates left at stake won't swing it one way or the other anyway.

So, using this information, how would you plot a path to the nomination for your chosen candidate? Are there any regional primaries I've missed? No, Indiana and Kentucky does not count. Is anybody especially favoured by the order? Hell, is any of this even relevant or are Democratics too homogenous nationally for there to be much of a regional divide?

Comments, criticisms, observations and accusations of secret agendas welcomed.